Wilson…

Don’t kid yourself — Trump can win

Paul D. Wilson

Paul D. Wilson

As the election nears, I tend to pay attention to three polling sources I’m partial to. I like Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight and Reuters. For the first time they agree this race is tightening. On August 26th, Reuters called it Clinton 295, Trump 171.

Last week, that looked more like Clinton 242, Trump 243.

There are 10-12 states that can still be swing states, two of which split the Electoral College vote instead of the common winner-take-all. Seven, in particular, are having unexplained shifts, but think we can determine the genesis with relative certainty.

In the past few days, Florida has had an 11 point swing towards Trump. Pennsylvania, the state I personally think will play the biggest role, has had a 5 point swing. Nevada comes in at 5, South Carolina, 5, Colorado 8 and Iowa 11. Continue reading

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